Allocation

Macro-economic figures are currently strong almost everywhere in the World. The ISM index is back to its local high in the US, PMI indices are also well oriented in Europe, China has stopped being a concern and even Japan’s growth seems to be coming back, albeit slowly.

Equities and bonds strengthened worldwide, but the dollar weakened because of the Fed’s more dovish tone on future rate rises. Whilst now at 1%, there is the suggestion another two rate rises will happen in 2017, this is still below some of the market’s more fearful projections.

As shown by the correlation between the risk premium and productivity trend growth, the current 5.9% risk premium anticipates a return to productivity gains at 3%, which is the level we saw during the dot com boom at the end of the 1990s.

A record number of investors (net 34%) find equities to be overvalued, the most in 17 years; the US is identified as the most overvalued region (net 81%), while EM equities (net 44%) and Eurozone equities (net 23%) are seen as undervalued

Net New Assets (NNA) during this month amounted to EUR9.4bn, nearly twice the one-year average of EUR4.9bn. Total Assets under Management are up 7% vs. the end of 2016, reaching EUR551bn, including a market impact of 3.9%.