Allocation

It’s Brexit all over again. The surge in anti-establishment sentiment is definitively global. Brexit can no longer be dismissed as a freak event. It is a trend. Donald Trump has won, by defying his party, the media, and conventional politics. Populism is coming to power. The critical issue now is what this mean in practice.

Donald Trump’s ability to resonate with the populist mood has proven successful– populism in the developed world is on a worrying rise. We have collated what we believe are the most important investment implications of Donald Trump winning the US election.

Risk aversion rose over the recent days as Election Day approaches in the U.S. and the gap between Clinton and Trump in the polls has narrowed. During the period under review, both equities and bonds delivered negative returns, while credit spreads widened and energy commodities fell markedly.

Most developed market yield curves have suffered bear steepening over the past few weeks, despite quantitative easing (QE).

In a world where a significant segment of government bond yields continue to hover in or near negative territory, the credit cycle looks to be nearing its end, and the devaluation of sterling is dominating the agenda, we are increasingly mindful of the threats to risk assets that are looming on the horizon.