Economics

It’s Brexit all over again. The surge in anti-establishment sentiment is definitively global. Brexit can no longer be dismissed as a freak event. It is a trend. Donald Trump has won, by defying his party, the media, and conventional politics. Populism is coming to power. The critical issue now is what this mean in practice.

The Fed should maintain its data-dependent normalization course with a rate hike likely mid-December 2016. Fed fund futures signal the market has not changed its mind on the Fed staying dovish in 2017. Janet Yellen’s four-year mandate as chair of the Board of Governors will last until 2018.

The votes are in and it is clear. For the second time in 2016 we have had a major rejection of the political status quo. Following on from the shock UK referendum result, a Trump victory is further evidence that many believe that we have reached peak globalisation and income inequality.

According to Martin Arnold, Director – FX & Macro Strategist, ETF Securities, a Clinton victory reduces political uncertainty, and takes another excuse away from the Federal Reserve to not raise rates at December FOMC meeting. USD is likely to continue to strengthen, particularly against safe-haven currencies like the JPY & CHF, in the lead-up to the FOMC meeting.

The biggest concern would be if the winning candidate manages to get control of both houses. According to Nick Clay, manager at Newton Investment Management, a subsidiary of BNY Mellon IM group, if that were to happen, then radical policy changes could be set in motion.