Economics

As yet, sterling appears not to have reacted to the looming referendum on the UK’s continued membership of the European Union. Over the short to medium term, however, the currency should end up reacting negatively, so great is the fallout for the British economy. In particular, one would expect the volatility displayed by sterling to pick up at the start of 2016, bearing in mind that opinion polls are very tight...

Since the 2008 crisis, central banks have had a major influence on financial market trends. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) in particular has orchestrated a historic rally among Japanese equity markets since announcing its quantitative and qualitative easing strategy (QQE) at the end of 2012.

According to Christophe Donay, Chief Strategist at Pictet Wealth Management, Bond yields are heading up. The rebound in equity markets since the beginning of October, looks largely played out, with further gains dependant on a turnaround in earnings forecasts. Yields on DM sovereign bonds are catching up with the wider market rally...

Fitch Ratings says in its latest Macro-Prudential Monitor that global credit growth is not likely to have a strong pick-up in 2015. Hence, macro-prudential risk indicators (MPI) could continue to trend lower with the highest risks still largely confined to emerging markets (EMs).

The US Federal Reserve maintained a status quo on its interest rates at its September meeting, thereby extending a period of zero interest rates that has lasted for virtually seven years already. This decision, which ought to have reassured investors, was on the contrary greeted with further significant equity market falls.