Economics

We believe that fears of a global slowdown are overdone, even though we are clearly past the peak in growth. Investor sentiment remains fragile and volatility high as fears about growth and political headlines keep markets on the back-foot. Yields have fallen on market woes, while credit spreads continue to widen. We look for diversifying and de-correlating strategies, such as alternatives, in a complex environment...

On the back of the election results, US and European equity futures are up about 1%, as one source of political uncertainty has been resolved. In our estimation, this reflects a market refocus on fundamentals that remain positive for equities, especially in the US, and will not meaningfully change with a Democratic House.

According to Nick Watson, Janus Henderson multi-asset team, from a markets perspective, Trump’s ability to provide the US economy and markets with further levels of stimulus and acceleration are likely to be constrained over the next two years.

Multiple sources suggest that UK and EU negotiators have reached a draft agreement on Britain’s terms for leaving the EU (the withdrawal agreement) including backstop mechanisms designed to ensure that Brexit does not create a hard border in Northern Ireland.

As you know, politics have become a major influence on the global economy and financial markets over the past few years (Brexit, the election of Donald Trump, the new Italian government). The upcoming midterm elections for the US Congress on 6 November are yet another example of the geopolitical risks that we as investors must manage.