Euro

According to SG Private Banking’s strategists, the interest rate differential is supporting the euro, whereas mounting incertitude is weighing on cyclical currencies.

The aim of this short article is to set the ideas straight regarding the Greek situation. Several issues are considered, the first of which being that of economic growth. If the latter does not make any progress, it will be very difficult to reach public finance stability. The second issue is about helping the Greeks improve their situation and the final issue deals with renewing that support.

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According to Michael Story, economist at Western Asset, while some peripheral European countries will be unable to escape restructuring their debt, the euro is unlikely to collapse any time soon as a result, and should in the short to medium term strengthen its position as a leading currency as demand to join the eurozone grows from former Soviet-controlled states.

If Greece is allowed to default now, the risk of a confidence crisis and contagion is substantial. The debt of other weak eurozone countries may fall victim to speculators and the market for credit default swaps could experience difficulties again