Hedge funds

An uneventful week for hedge funds. Amid reduced trading volumes and a pause in the Reflation trade, most Lyxor indices were about flat. CTAs and Macro funds stood out, in symmetry. The former lost on US yields and equities, the latter gained on their long US bonds and short Euro bonds. In this piece, we present our 2017 outlook for hedge funds.

It would be an understatement to say that active investing has been challenged in 2016. Political risks loomed large and the switch from deflation fears to reflation hopes in H2 led to sizeable trend reversals across the board. This took most investors by surprise.

Preqin’s latest on asset flows in the hedge fund industry finds that across the first three quarters of 2016 assets held by hedge fund managers increased by 2.9%, taking total industry AUM to $3.24tn. Across most strategies, strong returns have been the central driver of asset growth, with the industry posting gains of 5.44% through Q1-Q3 2016.

With U.S. data releases in the black and the Fed ready to act, Treasury yields kept creeping higher over the recent weeks. Meanwhile, the ECB recently signaled it may extend its bond buying program at the current € 80bn per month beyond March 2017 (the final decision is likely to be announced on December 8th).

The victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election has led to widespread market movements. After initial adverse movements, equities rallied and bond yields jumped as Trump’s initial statements reassured markets, calling for unity and pledging that he will be the “president of all Americans”.