Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Investors are expressing growing skepticism that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise rates this year amid fragility in the global economy and earnings, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for October.

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, overall credit longs drop sharply again. Now only 9% overweight IG. Credit technicals thus better in October. Investor cash levels surge, but outflow concerns may partly explain this and only 31% of IG and 25% of HY investors think an extension of ECB QE will drive asset prices up.

According to BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research report, Month-to-date, investment-grade cash bond spreads are 21bp wider and high-yield cash bond spreads are 73bp wider. September is shaping up to be the worst month of the year for performance, and the year-to-date picture is no rosier.

Global investors have raised their holdings of cash significantly in response to a weaker global economic outlook, particularly in China, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for July.

Global investors have significantly pared back U.S. equity allocations as belief grows that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates in the second quarter, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for March.