Absolute Returns

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) today published its first statistical report on European Union (EU) Alternative Investment Funds (AIF). The study finds that the EU AIF sector in 2017, as measured by Net Asset Value (NAV), amounted to €4.9tn...

Hedge fund strategies experienced a symmetric move. The strategies that suffered in December such as L/S Equity and Relative Value Arbitrage rebounded recently, while those resilient at the end of 2018, such as CTAs, lagged behind so far in Q1 due to their short equity positions.

The recent U-turn of major central banks from monetary normalization to renewed accommodation beat market expectations. In particular, the minutes from the FOMC meeting held on 29-30 January suggested the likely ending of the balance sheet runoff at the end of 2019.

In recent weeks, market conditions switched swiftly from panic mode to exuberance mode. Active investors are scratching their heads as markets no longer seem to be discounting a U.S. recession and any Fed rate hike in 2019.

The positioning of CTAs and Global Macro strategies on equities remains very cautious at present. Meanwhile, long Fixed Income positions have increased over the past few weeks. The stance has thus turned more defensive, even though the outlook on EM assets has turned more constructive.