Monetary policy

The Greek financial crisis deteriorated last weekend after talks between the Greek government and the institutions providing financial aid to the Greek government – the EC, the IMF and the ECB – failed to come to any agreement.

According to René Defossez, Strategist at Natixis, it seems reasonable to assume that, to begin with, the European Central Bank will endeavour to keep the 10-year nominal swap as low as possible, which means that the breakeven swap will remain deep in negative territory. However, it is also likely that the breakeven swap will remain very volatile, maybe more so, given the change in the global environment...

According to Azad Zangana, Economist at Schroders, for the European Central Bank (ECB), the faster than expected rise in inflation is unlikely to change its outlook or path of monetary stimulus. The ECB always had a more optimistic forecast than the consensus, and so will not be overly surprised that growth and inflation are improving...

An increasingly hotly debated topic with respect to the medium-term outlook for both the economy and markets is the increasing signs of a trend fall-back in productivity growth in DM economies. Shortly put, lower productivity growth leads to lower economic growth, increased solvency risks in entitlement...

The Brazilian economy is in dire straits. However, if the government moves forward with fiscal austerity, the economic and political crisis can be overcome, thinks portfolio manager Daniela da Costa-Bulthuis. Crumbling political support could certainly still throw a spanner in the works though.