Monetary policy

According to Martin Arnold, Director – FX & Macro Strategist, ETF Securities, a Clinton victory reduces political uncertainty, and takes another excuse away from the Federal Reserve to not raise rates at December FOMC meeting. USD is likely to continue to strengthen, particularly against safe-haven currencies like the JPY & CHF, in the lead-up to the FOMC meeting.

The biggest concern would be if the winning candidate manages to get control of both houses. According to Nick Clay, manager at Newton Investment Management, a subsidiary of BNY Mellon IM group, if that were to happen, then radical policy changes could be set in motion.

According to Luc Luyet and Frederik Ducrozet, Asset Allocation & Macro Research, Pictet Wealth Management, the sharp drop of the sterling on Friday 7 October at the start of trading in Asia with the currency declining 6% in the course of twenty minutes was the climax of a particularly tough week for the currency.

Given the economic and political headwinds and shocks we have experienced in the first six months of 2016, the summer could easily have been characterised by uncertainty and volatility.

It is often said that that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. This appears to be a lesson that central bankers have been unable – or unwilling – to grasp.