Risk

Look outside the US, Goldilocks scenario doesn’t hold anymore; EM back on the buy list: take advantage of the Armageddon panic; The Damocles swords of 2018 are slowly being pulled back

After President Trump signed the ’Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’ into law on 22 December 2017, we expected corporate earnings growth to be strong in 2018. In fact, it has been far stronger, as the direct effect of the tax cut on corporate earnings was further magnified by the acceleration in economic growth.

Dropping twice by some 10%, as the index has this year, might seem more exceptional. But it is not that uncommon, too, when looking back in history: at least two declines by 10% or more within one year have occurred seven times since 1990.

We suspect the architects behind “the Tulip” are giving a nod to the famous European Tulip Mania of 1637. Even if the building is never completed, there may be no more fitting end to such a long trend toward positive social mood in the U.K.

Average cash balance holds steady at 5.1%, well above the 10-year average of 4.5%, as investors stay bearish. A record 85% of survey respondents think the global economy is in the late cycle, 11ppt above prior highs in Dec. ‘07