Monetary policy

We think it is reasonable to bet on an upcoming monetary tightening (next December FOMC): The US economy can fully withstand some interest rate increases; the global economy, probably a bit less; and the financial markets (especially emerging), less still. This means that the Fed’s message is now absolutely critical...

According to John L. Bellows, PhD, Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst with Western Asset, Janet Yellen’s decision has not changed his view of the Fed going forward. He continues to think the Fed will be responsive to changes in the outlook, and at the same time he thinks the Fed is on track to raise rates this year.

This had been one of the most eagerly awaited FOMC meetings, but in the end the Federal Reserve decided to pass its turn. The last time the Fed Funds rate was raised, back in June 2006, there was a far more compelling case, making the central bank’s job a good deal easier: unemployment was even lower than it is now (4.6% vs. 5.1%) and inflation towered at 4%, while growth reached 2.7% and the 10-year rate stood at 5.1%.

Stéphane Monier, Chief Investment Officer of Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. reviews the outlook for US interest rates after the Federal Reserve’s statement of 30 July...

According to Rory Bateman,head of european equities at Schroders, volatility in markets is likely to continue for an extended period until the ramifications of a potential Greek exit from the euro are fully understood. QE and current valuations could provide some downside protection for European equities...