Columbia Threadneedle Investments

As one of the world’s largest economies the US is a key focus for investors. With every country attempting to return to normality following the coronavirus pandemic, we are monitoring when US economic activity might get back on track, as well as other measures of “normality” such as entertainment and leisure, high street shopping, and schools reopening.

After a rollercoaster 2020 for European high yield markets, 2021 looks set to be more stable. Fears of high levels of corporate defaults have proved unjustified, allowing high yield to rebound in 2020 and setting the scene for the coming year.

If the UK equity market was out of favour at the beginning of 2020, it’s even more so now. Until the arrival of three vaccines prompted a wave of market exuberance towards the end of the year, UK equities had fallen approximately 20%. The only two worse-performing equity markets were Russia and Brazil...

Understanding how individual companies are likely to perform in an environment dominated by the major themes that we have identified is likely to yield significant opportunities over the coming quarters and years.

While political risk, a second Covid-19 wave, lower economic activity and suppressed inflation might trigger a short-term sell-off, in the medium term a high equity risk premium and low rates will support equities