Hedge funds

One common knock on factor models is that they “replicate only beta” – not the pure alpha gold that allocators seek. This critique pre-dates the appreciation of factor rotations. Outside of some ivory tower statistics class, no one questions the “alpha” generated by, for example, the dotcom-era value vs growth trade or the recent Treasury short.

Managers in the U.S. and Europe are continuing to reduce both their net and gross exposures, now converging near their long-term lows. They are selectively selling or shorting stocks that are the most exposed to tighter restrictions, preferring value stocks instead (to position on firming real yields).

Gyrations in U.S. rates were highly challenging to navigate. Bond volatility surged in October as the Fed prepared to withdraw monetary accommodation and as investors struggled to assess the medium-term path of inflation.

L/S Equity managers have decently navigated these markets, generating small positive alpha (especially on their short positions) but their implicit stance is diverging across regions. U.S. managers detracted only marginal alpha. They maintained their modest overall exposures throughout September and further reduced them early October, keeping limited factor tilts.

Trading conditions in China have severely deteriorated. After reaching their peak by mid-February, stocks lost earlier gains in March, on evidence of a plateauing economy and as stretched investors’ positioning unwounded. Chinese markets were then stuck in a volatile trading range until the summer when they suffered another -15% plunge.